Bah\u00e7e\u015fehir \u00dcniversitesi Ekonomik ve Toplumsal Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar Merkezi (BETAM) Y\u00f6neticisi Prof. Dr. Seyfettin G\u00fcrsel, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n sonlar\u0131ndan itibaren istihdamdakilerin say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmeye, i\u015fsiz say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n da azalmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. G\u00fcrsel, i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasalar\u0131ndaki bu s\u0131ra d\u0131\u015f\u0131 geli\u015fmenin corona vir\u00fcs\u00fc \u015foku ile adeta bir tsunamiye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc tabir etti.<\/p>\n

\u0130K\u0130 YIL S\u00dcRECEK<\/b><\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye’nin k\u0131ymetli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde insan sermayesini son 5 ay i\u00e7inde yitirdi\u011fini ortaya koyan G\u00fcrsel, \u201cT\u00fcrkiye toplumu daha evvel hi\u00e7 deneyim etmedi\u011fi bir fakirle\u015fme s\u00fcrecine girdi. \u00c7ok say\u0131da ailenin 2019 gelir seviyelerini yakalayabilmeleri b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla iki y\u0131l alabilir\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n

Prof. Dr. Seyfettin G\u00fcrsel, k\u0131sa \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma \u00f6dene\u011finden yararlananlar\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n 3.5 milyon oldu\u011funu, fiyats\u0131z m\u00fcsaadeye \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lanlar\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n da 1.7 milyonu buldu\u011funa i\u015faret ederek \u015funlar\u0131 s\u00f6yledi:<\/p>\n

“T\u00fcrkiye’de istihdam\u0131 direkt muhafazaya y\u00f6nelik esas iki tedbir al\u0131nd\u0131. K\u0131sa \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma \u015fartlar\u0131 gev\u015fetildi ve bu stat\u00fcye ge\u00e7irilen \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131n fiyat\u0131n\u0131n tabi bir tavan da vard\u0131 zati y\u00fczde 60 devlet taraf\u0131ndan \u00f6denmeye ba\u015fland\u0131. Lakin \u00e7ok ge\u00e7meden bu tedbirin k\u00e2fi olmayaca\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131 ve ek olarak bir de i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131karma yasa\u011f\u0131 getirildi. Ancak birebir vakitte patron istedi\u011fi kadar \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan\u0131n\u0131 fiyats\u0131z m\u00fcsaadeye \u00e7\u0131karabilecekti. Devlet de ayda 1176 TL \u00fczere son derce yetersiz bir \u00f6deme yapacakt\u0131. Son say\u0131lara nazaran k\u0131sa \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma \u00f6dene\u011finden yararlananlar\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131 3.5 milyondu.<\/em><\/p>\n

Bunlar\u0131n birden fazla fiilen \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131yordu. Fiyats\u0131z m\u00fcsaadeye \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lanlar\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131 da 1.7 milyonu buldu. Bunlar tarif icab\u0131 hi\u00e7 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131yordu. Sonu\u00e7 olarak 5.2 milyon ki\u015fi istihdamda g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor fakat asl\u0131nda potansiyel i\u015fsizler. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda fiili i\u015fsizli\u011fin nereye gidece\u011fi b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bu potansiyel i\u015fsizlerin ak\u0131betine ba\u011fl\u0131. Bir yanda 2.5 milyon insan i\u015finden olmu\u015f lakin i\u015f aram\u0131yor ve ezici \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu devlet dayana\u011f\u0131ndan mahrum. Ba\u015fka yanda 5 milyon k\u00fcsur ki\u015fi kelamda istihdamda lakin son derece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck takviyelerle y\u00f6netim etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/em><\/p>\n

Idare hakl\u0131 olarak k\u0131sa \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma \u00f6dene\u011fi ve i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131karma yasa\u011f\u0131 iktisat gere\u011fince toparlanmadan son bulursa a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015fsizli\u011fin ya da fiili i\u015fsizli\u011fin, asl\u0131nda fark etmez, patlama yapmas\u0131ndan tela\u015f ediyor. Lakin \u00f6te yandan yap\u0131lan \u00f6demeler b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcratle art\u0131r\u0131yor. A\u00e7\u0131klar i\u015fsizlik sigortas\u0131n\u0131n kasas\u0131ndaki devlet tahvilleri sat\u0131larak yap\u0131l\u0131yor ancak bu da piyasa faizleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yap\u0131yor. Bu t\u00fcrl\u00fc uzun m\u00fcddet y\u00f6netim edemezsiniz.”<\/em><\/p>\n

“T\u00fcrkiye toplumu daha evvel hi\u00e7 deneyim etmedi\u011fi bir fakirle\u015fme s\u00fcrecine girdi” diyen G\u00fcrsel “Yegane umut, salg\u0131nda ikinci bir dalga ya\u015fanmadan iktisad\u0131n nispeten toparlanmas\u0131. \u00d6nemli makroekonomik problemler birikiyor. Y\u00fczde 5-6 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn \u00f6n\u00fcnde mahzurlar olu\u015fmakta. \u00c7ok say\u0131da ailenin 2019 gelir seviyelerini yakalayabilmeleri b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla iki y\u0131l alabilir. Fakirle\u015fmenin e\u011fitim, s\u0131hhat \u00fczere be\u015feri sermaye alanlar\u0131nda neden olaca\u011f\u0131 yan tesirlerden ka\u00e7\u0131nmak mevcut \u015fartlarda ne yaz\u0131k ki m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor”<\/em> dedi.<\/p>\n

2.5 M\u0130LYON \u0130\u015eS\u0130Z BUHARLA\u015eTI<\/b><\/p>\n

S\u00f6zc\u00fc gazetesinden Mehtap \u00d6zcan Ert\u00fcrk’e<\/em> konu\u015fan ve 2.5 milyon i\u015fsizin ‘buharla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131’ s\u00f6yleyen G\u00fcrsel \u015fu s\u00f6zleri kulland\u0131:<\/p>\n

“Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n sonlar\u0131ndan itibaren, yani korona \u00f6ncesinde, T\u00fcrkiye i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda birinci kere g\u00f6r\u00fclen s\u0131ra d\u0131\u015f\u0131 bir geli\u015fmeyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131k. \u0130stihdamdakilerin say\u0131s\u0131 azal\u0131rken i\u015fsiz say\u0131s\u0131 da azalmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Me\u011fer ola\u011fanda tam aksi olur; i\u015flerini kaybeden be\u015ferler i\u015f aramaya ba\u015flar, i\u015fsiz say\u0131s\u0131 da do\u011fal olarak y\u00fckselir.<\/em><\/p>\n

Aral\u0131k periyodundan \u015fubat periyoduna \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k m\u00fcddette tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam net 306 bin kay\u0131p ya\u015fad\u0131. T\u0131pk\u0131 periyotta i\u015fsiz say\u0131s\u0131 ise 296\u00a0 bin azald\u0131. Korona \u015foku ise bu s\u0131ra d\u0131\u015f\u0131 geli\u015fmeyi adeta bir tusunamiye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrd\u00fc. Mart ve nisanda tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam kayb\u0131 1 milyon 900 bini a\u015ft\u0131. Tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u015fsiz say\u0131s\u0131 ise yaln\u0131zca 80 bin artt\u0131. \u00d6zcesi, yakla\u015f\u0131k 2.3 milyon net istihdam kayb\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015firken i\u015fsizi say\u0131s\u0131 da kabaca 200 bin azald\u0131; tabiri caizse, 2.5 milyon i\u015fsiz buharla\u015ft\u0131.”<\/em><\/p>\n

\u0130\u015eS\u0130ZLER NEREYE KAYBOLDU?<\/b><\/p>\n

“T\u00dc\u0130K bu bahiste ne diyor?” sorusunu yan\u0131tlayan Prof. Dr. G\u00fcrsel\u00a0<\/p>\n

“T\u00dc\u0130K hane halk\u0131 i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc istatistikleri elbette insanlar\u0131 buharla\u015ft\u0131ramaz. Her \u015feyden evvel istihdamda olanlar ile i\u015f arayanlar\u0131n toplam\u0131 olan i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00e7al\u0131\u015fabilir n\u00fcfus i\u00e7indeki hissesi s\u00fcratle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. \u0130\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131lma oran\u0131 nisanda y\u00fczde 47.5’e gerileyerek, 8 y\u0131l geriye gitti” <\/em>dedi.<\/p>\n

G\u00fcrsel, i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fcne bayanlar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc i\u015ftiraki sayesinde y\u00fczde 53.5’e kadar y\u00fckseldi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi ve \u015fu a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda bulundu:<\/p>\n

“\u00d6zellikle i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fcne bayanlar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc i\u015ftiraki sayesinde Mart 2019’da y\u00fczde 53.5’e kadar y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. <\/em>T\u00fcrkiye de\u011ferli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde insan sermayesini son 5 ay i\u00e7inde yitirdi. Ne kadar vakitte geri alaca\u011f\u0131 da belirli de\u011fil. T\u00dc\u0130K istatistiklerinin detaylar\u0131na girildi\u011finde bu soruya k\u0131smen cevap vermek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. \u0130\u015f bulma \u00fcmidi olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in i\u015f aramayanlar var. Say\u0131lar\u0131 aral\u0131ktan nisan ay\u0131na kadar 800 binden 1.3 milyona \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bir de \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya haz\u0131r fakat \u201c\u00e7e\u015fitli ailevi nedenlerle\u201d i\u015f aramayanlar var ki; bir\u00e7ok bayanlardan olu\u015fuyor. Say\u0131lar\u0131 t\u0131pk\u0131 devirde 1.7 milyondan 3.1 milyona y\u00fckseldi. 15-24 ya\u015f ortas\u0131 \u201cne e\u011fitimde ne i\u015fte\u201d olan, i\u015f de aramayan gen\u00e7ler var.<\/em><\/p>\n

Bunlar\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 3 milyondan 3 milyon 400 bine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Toplarsak be\u015f ayda i\u015f aramad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in i\u015fsiz olarak kayda ge\u00e7meyen 2.3 milyon ki\u015fi var. Tabi t\u00fcm bu s\u0131ra d\u0131\u015f\u0131 art\u0131\u015flar i\u015fsizli\u011fi ger\u00e7ekte oldu\u011fundan daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6steriyor. Bu \u015fah\u0131slar\u0131n birden fazla ola\u011fanda i\u015f ar\u0131yor olacakt\u0131 ayr\u0131yeten bu hesaplara girmeyen bilhassa meskene kapanmak zorunda kalan lakin \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya muhta\u00e7l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ya da iste\u011fi olan mesken bayanlar\u0131 da var. Say\u0131lar\u0131na dair bir ipucu \u015fimdilik yok. Sonu\u00e7ta, kimi iddias\u0131 hesaplara nazaran tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 22-23’e yakla\u015f\u0131yor.”<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

Cumhuriyet<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bah\u00e7e\u015fehir \u00dcniversitesi Ekonomik ve Toplumsal Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar Merkezi (BETAM) Y\u00f6neticisi Prof. Dr. Seyfettin G\u00fcrsel, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n sonlar\u0131ndan …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1223,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[618,48,617,186,360],"class_list":["post-1222","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-5-milyon","tag-is","tag-issiz","tag-milyon","tag-yan"],"yoast_head":"\n